A new report suggests the iPhone 18 Fold's price may hurt its sales.

Apple shares initially fell on Friday due to a ratings drop, declining by as much as $3.18 before recovering to close at $258.02, nearing its 52-week and all-time high of $260.10. Jefferies suggests that the anticipated demand for the iPhone 17 is already factored into the stock's price, even as shares approach record levels. The base iPhone 17 model now features a ProMotion display, previously exclusive to "Pro" models, offering a 120Hz variable refresh rate and an always-on display.

Jefferies believes that strong iPhone 17 demand has led to inflated expectations for the iPhone 18 series and the iPhone 18 Fold, potentially overestimating the replacement cycle. They assert that Apple's current valuation reflects an "overly bullish iPhone outlook."

Jefferies cautions that without groundbreaking innovations, relying on lower prices for sustained replacement demand could compress margins. The firm also notes the slow adoption of the new iPhone Air's ultra-thin design, suggesting caution in predicting success for the iPhone 18 Fold. Jefferies warns that "making any bullish view on foldable risky."

Jefferies anticipates that the iPhone 18 Fold's price could limit its demand, estimating Apple's first foldable iPhone will be priced around $2,000, similar to the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 7. The firm suggests that consumers may be unwilling to spend more than $2,000 on a foldable device, potentially curbing demand.

Earlier in the week, Seaport Research Partners issued a Buy rating for Apple with a $310 price target, approximately a 20% increase from Friday's price. Analyst Jay Goldberg noted Apple's improved ability to monetize its user base.

Recent data from FactSet indicates a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment among Apple investors. Of the 50 tracked securities firms, 31 have a Buy rating or equivalent, 17 recommend "Hold," and two, including Jefferies, have a "Sell" rating on Apple's stock.

As Apple approaches an all-time high, Jefferies' outlook focuses on the longer term, considering the upcoming iPhone 18 series, including the iPhone 18 Fold. The firm seems to be applying the "buy the rumor, sell the news" strategy, suggesting that the stock may decline after the initial excitement surrounding the foldable iPhone announcement subsides and investors take profits.

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