A resurgence in iPhone sales could significantly impact the global smartphone market.

A recent report from the institute acknowledges ongoing challenges but emphasizes that demand for device replacements should boost growth through 2026.

Nabila Popal, a senior research director at IDC, noted in August 2025 that most smartphone vendors are currently able to disregard tariff volatility as they focus on diversifying and advancing their production strategies to satisfy healthy demand across various markets and segments.

Most global regions anticipate market growth this year, except for China, which is projected to decline by 1%. The US market should grow by 3.6%, the Middle East and Africa by 6.5%, and the Asia Pacific (excluding China) by 0.8%.

IDC’s projections through 2029 suggest a positive outlook for both the overall market, foldable devices, and AI integration in smartphones. GenAI phones are expected to hold a 30% market share in 2025, growing to over 70% by 2029, due to enhanced capabilities, more applications, and greater consumer understanding of AI features.

Foldable devices are predicted to increase by 6% in 2025, followed by another 6% the next year and 11% in 2027. Even so, they are expected to remain a relatively small segment, accounting for under 3% of smartphone shipments by 2029.