T-Mobile might be able to expand its lead in U.S. sub-6GHz spectrum holdings.

EchoStar recently abandoned its ambition to become a major facilities-based carrier, selling 50MHz of spectrum to AT&T for $23 billion. The agreement provides AT&T with 20MHz of 600MHz low-band spectrum, utilized for its nationwide AT&T 5G network. It also includes 30MHz of 3.45GHz mid-band spectrum, which powers the faster AT&T 5G+ service.

The deal provides EchoStar with substantial capital and may ease regulatory concerns regarding spectrum holdings, particularly the 2GHz licenses sought by SpaceX for its direct-to-cell satellite service. This service would enable smartphone users to connect to an LTE signal from almost any location.

TD Cowen estimates that, pending the deal's closure next year, AT&T will possess 314MHz of sub-6GHz spectrum, surpassing Verizon's 279MHz. T-Mobile currently leads with 376MHz. EchoStar's remaining 76MHz could alter the spectrum landscape.

As EchoStar transitions to a hybrid Mobile Network Organization (MNO), Octus Research analyst Adam Rhodes suggested strong demand for EchoStar's spectrum licenses, including its paired AWS-3 licenses. AT&T CEO John Stankey's comment hints at further potential spectrum sales by EchoStar.

Mobile Experts Principal Joe Madden stated that EchoStar, as a hybrid MNO, no longer needs the spectrum and seemed to prioritize speculation on rising spectrum prices over network development. He anticipates a sale of the remaining spectrum soon, viewing EchoStar's aspirations of becoming a fourth major operator as unachievable.

Madden suggests Verizon and SpaceX as possible buyers for EchoStar's remaining spectrum. SpaceX is interested in the 2GHz/AWS-4 spectrum. A Semafor report indicates T-Mobile may also pursue the remaining spectrum.

If Verizon acquired 36MHz of EchoStar's remaining spectrum, it would exceed AT&T's sub-6GHz spectrum holdings, assuming AT&T's deal with EchoStar concludes. Acquiring all 76 MHz wouldn't surpass T-Mobile. Should AT&T acquire an additional 63MHz from EchoStar, it would become the leader in sub-6GHz spectrum holdings. T-Mobile could solidify its lead by purchasing some of EchoStar's leftover spectrum.

Techsponential Founder Avi Greengart suggests the FCC might allocate EchoStar's remaining spectrum to a party in need. AvidThink Principal Roy Chua proposes that other MNOs might bid for the airwaves, or EchoStar might retain or lease some spectrum for direct-to-device satellite services.

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